What's Wrong with the Right, Part 1

Ignore the title for a second, if you would. I do not intend this series as a simple excuse to insult the right. Rather, I intend to pursue challenges the Republican Party has been facing in recent years, the troubles they soon will face, and what (if anything) can be done about it.

It is a known fact that the GOP has experienced substantial losses over the last few elections. It's easy to paint these losses in an overly-simplistic, partisan light, whether citing President Obama's charisma (from the right) or an outright failure of GOP economic and foreign policies (from the left). Rather, I suspect that the decline that the GOP is currently facing is the result of a variety of factors, and that if they can't change course, they might only be getting a taste of things to come.

A little history will be useful for this chapter. Following the Civil War, the Democrats became rather known as the anti-brown people party, favoring a return to pre-war practices in the South. The Republicans, by contrast, desired to reform the region, cutting out what they saw as the roots of the issues. This dichotomy continued for the better part of the next century, until Kennedy and Johnson, seeing the rise of the civil rights movement in the South, decided to shift the party line on the issue, hoping to get in on the ground floor and snap up black voters. Acting in response to this, Nixon adopted what was to be known as the Southern strategy, attempting to pick up the anti-civil rights wight southerners that the Dems were leaving behind.

Today, we see a similar dichotomy relating to the Hispanic/Latino vote. Studies have shown that Hispanic voters are the fastest-growing demographic in the US today, and shows no signs of slowing. Naturally, it would be of great benefit for a political party to align themselves with the group as soon as possible. In fact, it's doubly important to the GOP, as a great deal of this growth is being seen in the Republican strongholds of the South and Southwest. If the Dems can garner strong Hispanic support, therefore, they might even be able to take Texas in the near future, which would spell disaster for the GOP. Fortunately for the Republicans, the heavy Catholic tendencies the group means that, by and large, they are pretty well aligned with the religious right on the issues of gay marriage/abortion/etc., giving the GOP a substantial edge in gaining their support.

So, why would I say that this is a problem for the GOP? Frankly, because the Republican Party never bothered to call a halt to the Southern strategy. These days, the right-wing politicians are listening to the group calling themselves nativists, a faction primarily based in their opposition to immigration. Former President Bush, owing to his time as governor of Texas, saw this demographic shift coming, and tried to relax immigration standards, among other things, but the rest of his party shot him down. Even McCain, traditionally far more moderate than other members of the party, has sworn opposition to such matters, perhaps owing to his current Senate primary battle against the founder of the terrorist group known as the Minutemen. Perhaps the best example of this trend, however, is the contention over Justice Sotomayor. I'm not saying that race was the only factor causing the Republicans to oppose her, but several Senators seemed to make it clear that it was, at least, one reason.

The core problem, however, is the simple fact that the nativists are getting much older, and the new generation doesn't feel anywhere near as strongly opposed to immigration as in generations past. Result: The faction is on its way out as a viable vote source. It seems to me that the GOP needs to abandon the nativist appeasement plan they currently follow, despite the "sure thing" they pose in the short term. Getting behind sound immigration reform, coupled with their religious leanings, could be enough to garner a good bit of Hispanic support. The longer they fail to do so, however, the more support will slip through their fingers. By and large, the Republicans have already lost the black vote, but if they hurry, it isn't too late to learn from their mistake.

Next week: Does Fox News hurt Republican electability?